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As global oil markets recalibrate in the wake of geopolitical shifts and energy transition imperatives, Africa remains a vital — and evolving — player in the global supply landscape. With African Energy Week (AEW) 2025: Invest in African Energies on the horizon, the continent’s oil supply outlook presents a mix of near-term resilience and long-term opportunity. According to the African Energy Chamber’s State of African Energy 2025 Outlook Report, production is expected to reach 7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the short term, while longer-term gains hinge on project sanctioning, upstream investment and the resolution of above-ground challenges across key producing regions.

Short-Term Supply Outlook: Stability Amid Global Volatility

According to the report, Africa’s short-term oil production outlook is poised for relative stability in 2025, with volumes expected to reach around 7 million bpd. This growth will be driven by a production rebound in Nigeria, sustained output from Angola, the resumption of pipeline exports in Sudan and improved political stability in Libya. The continent’s performance highlights its ability to navigate global uncertainties, with production supported by a mix of established producers and emerging developments.

Africa’s oil supply is fairly balanced between onshore and offshore production, with onshore contributing 55% of the total. Regional dynamics, however, differ sharply: West Africa relies heavily on offshore production, which makes up nearly 75% of its output, while North Africa is overwhelmingly onshore, contributing over 90% of regional supply. Security challenges and political instability continue to impact onshore operations, particularly in countries like Libya, Nigeria and Sudan, where disruptions have capped production well below capacity. Despite these vulnerabilities, the short-term upside lies in onshore output, provided stability holds. Meanwhile, offshore production, especially in Angola and Nigeria, is expected to remain stable at around 3 million bpd, as these countries ramp up investment to counter natural decline in mature deepwater fields.

Long-Term Supply Outlook: Key Markets

Africa’s long-term oil supply outlook is shaped by a complex interplay of political decisions, investment trends and structural challenges. In Angola, following its exit from OPEC, new upstream incentives, such as tax breaks and enhanced cost recoverability, are expected to stimulate drilling and exploration activity. As a result, the country is projected to sustain production levels above 1 million bpd through 2025.

Among the remaining African OPEC members – Libya, the Republic of Congo, Gabon, Nigeria, Algeria and Equatorial Guinea – production is projected to increase from 3.9 million bpd to 4.28 million bpd by late 2025. Nigeria remains pivotal to this growth but continues to struggle with pipeline vandalism and oil theft, which have capped its output below its 1.5 million bpd target. Despite these challenges, Nigeria is seen as having the largest un-risked upside, with major offshore projects such as Owowo West, Etan-Zabazaba and Bonga Southwest-Aparo awaiting final investment decisions. These alone could contribute an additional 1.5 million bpd by the end of the decade.

Looking ahead, Africa’s total production potential could expand by 3.7 million bpd if delayed projects in Nigeria, Libya, Angola and Congo are able to advance. However, this growth hinges on resolving persistent barriers like financing gaps, security risks and under-investment by global oil majors, many of whom are pivoting their portfolios toward cleaner energy. In a fast-paced energy transition scenario, African producers risk being sidelined by more agile competitors, unless they act swiftly to monetize reserves and bring projects online.

AEW 2025: Aligning Policy, Projects and Partnerships

As reflected in Africa’s short- and long-term oil supply outlooks, new investments, policy incentives and timely project sanctions are critical to sustaining and expanding production across the continent. Returning to Cape Town on September 29-October 3, AEW 2025 will convene governments, national oil companies and private sector leaders to shape the future of African oil in a diversifying global energy landscape. The event will serve as a strategic platform to spotlight new licensing rounds, upstream investment opportunities and technology-driven partnerships aimed at maximizing production and unlocking long-term potential.

With oil continuing to serve as an economic cornerstone for many African nations, AEW 2025 provides a timely opportunity to advance conversations around responsible development, regional collaboration and infrastructure investment. Key stakeholders will explore strategies to enhance value retention, boost intra-African trade and position African crude more competitively on the global stage, aligning short-term recovery efforts with long-term energy security and resilience.

AEW: Invest in African Energies is the platform of choice for project operators, financiers, technology providers and government, and has emerged as the official place to sign deals in African energy. Visit www.aecweek.com for more information about this exciting event.